Vanke A (000002): Preliminary sales expected in the first quarter are expected to remain stable

Diluted earnings in the first quarter of 19 (0).

10 yuan, an annual increase of 25%, in line with expectations of Vanke A’s first quarter of 19 results: operating income of 48.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 57%; net profit attributable to mothers 11 trillion, an increase of 25%, corresponding to zero profit.

10 yuan, in line with expectations.

Concentrated carry-over of real estate projects drove revenue growth.

The initial settlement area of the company increased by 88% to 3.11 million square meters per year, the settlement amount increased by 64%, and the operating income increased by 57%.

The three expense ratios decreased by 2 units to 12% compared with the same period last year, but the effective tax rate increased by 5 percentage points, the minority shareholders’ profit and loss increased by 136%, and the net profit attributable to the mother increased by 25%.

Net interest rate is still low, and cash on hand is abundant.

At the end of the period, the company’s net debt ratio increased by 14 percentage points from the beginning of the year to 45%, and cash on hand was 143.2 billion yuan, which could cover twice the interest resistance due within one year.

Recently the company took 3.

The 6% coupon rate publicly issued 2 billion yuan (5 years) of housing lease special corporate bonds, and the issue cost was low in the industry.

Development trend Short-term budget materials flatten every night.

The actual new construction area of the company fell by 10% to 10.19 million square meters (instead of the company’s planned new construction area of 36.09 million square meters, which was a 28% decrease from the actual new construction area 苏州桑拿网 last year), and the sales / sale area decreased by 3% / 12% to1494 ppm / 9.25 million square meters.

Initially, we expect the company to achieve an order of about 6000 trillion, and maintain stability for one year.

At the end of the period, the total construction area of the company’s planned projects under construction was 1.

5 billion square meters, delivery value is about 2 at the current average selling price.

5 trillion.

The carry-over income is highly lock-in, and the initial completion plan has a growth rate of over 10%.

At the end of the period, the outstanding amount of the company’s sales increased by 19% to 5864 trillion per year, which is equivalent to 1.

.

4 times.

The company’s estimated completion area in 2019 is 30.77 million square meters, an increase of 12% over the actual completion area in 2西安耍耍网018.

Earnings forecast We lower the company’s 2019 earnings forecast by 9% to 3.

83 yuan (mainly due to the low-margin sales of intensive expansion of the policy end in 2017 entering the centralized settlement period, which may lead to a progressively lower gross margin than expected in 2019), dating to 2020 profit forecast4.

56 yuan.

Estimates and recommendations companies currently have a sustainable response7.

7/6.

4x 2019 / 2020e PE ratio.

Maintain recommended level and target price of 33.

1 yuan, corresponding to 8.

7/7.

3x 2019 / 2020e target price-earnings ratio and 13% upside.

The progress of risk delivery was lower than expected, and the continuous accrual of impairment caused the performance to be lower than expected.