China Shenhua (601088): Leading Supply Supply Steady Operation
Introduction to this report: Shenhua’s latest data is mainly reflected in two points:.
Investment Highlights: Reduce earnings forecast and maintain target price of 24.
78 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.
The one-time reduction of the price of the Long-term Association and the impact of the epidemic on the thermal power business in December will reduce the company’s 2019?
EPS to 2 in 2021.
22 yuan (previous forecast 2).
47), maintaining 24.
Target price of 78 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating.
Supply is maintained in critical periods, coal production is stable, and there is room for further recovery.
The company released operating data for January 2020, of which commercial coal production was 24.
1 million tons, an increase of 3 per year.
0 million tons (14.
2%); before 2019.
2 million tons fell by 0.
1 million tons.
According to the announcement, the company “guarantees energy supply in the country, especially in Hubei, and its main operating indicators exceed the monthly plan.”
The company has advanced production capacity and most of it is sold by railway, which is not affected by transportation. The leading 武汉夜生活网 advantages are prominent.
According to the previous announcement, due to land acquisition, licenses and other factors affecting the victory of production in 2019, Hal Usu, Wanli and other coal mines gradually resume normal production, and we expect room for further increase in production.
Coal prices have risen in the short term, but have fallen each year.
According to data from the Coal Market Network, the company is 2020.
In January and February, the annual long-term association price was 542 and 543 yuan / ton (the same period last year were 553 and 551). The price decrease of the long-term association was mainly determined by 2019.
The BSPI index was revised downward in December.
It is expected that the current scale of supply and demand is expected to continue after the upstream and downstream work resumes, and the price of the long-term association will remain stable.
Electricity generation is accumulating from a month-on-month basis, and capacity growth is expected in the medium term.
The power generation in January was 12.
14 billion kWh, compared to 2019.
20 billion kilowatt hours 14.
5%, the early Chinese New Year, the combined impact of the epidemic, and is expected to continue in February or weak.
The company’s Java 2 under construction, Shengli, Jinjie, Yongzhou, and Tianming Power Plants have been successfully constructed. It is expected that they will be put into production in this year and next year, contributing to incremental performance.
The release of production capacity did not meet expectations; the scale of capital expenditures expanded; the dividends of subsidiaries did not meet expectations.