BYD (002594): Sales continue to grow rapidly in March
Event: The company announced the sales volume report for March 2019. New energy vehicle sales in March increased 116% to 30,075 units.
The company’s sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter increased by 147% year-on-year to 73,172 units.
The company’s power battery production in March was 1.
65Gwh, an increase of 85% per year.
Comments: January and March sales are in line with expectations, and follow-up catalysis continues, optimistic about the company’s development.
We believe that the sales of new energy vehicles in 3 months are in line with expectations. It is expected that the sales volume of the transitional transition company will continue to increase in the second quarter, and the company’s market share is expected to continue to increase in the case of inter-segment price increases or inventory upgrades400,000 sales are worry-free.
We believe that the current market is too profitable for the company, and the company can hedge supplementary risks from multiple perspectives to help 19 years of high growth performance: a) New energy passenger cars: the cost side, the battery cost is reduced by 15% + other costsReduced by 5% (approximately 1 for bicycles.
5w), scale effect reduces cost 0.
5w. At the same time, some components reduce the cost of the drive system by 1w. At the same time, some pure electric models can be reduced by 1w + cost, and the reduction of 3% corresponds to a cost reduction of several thousand. The average bicycle subsidy is reduced by about 2.
70,000, the company can gradually eliminate most of the impact through cost reduction (the product is not increased in price), converted to 19 years of sales doubled, the company’s new energy passenger car business gross profit gradually achieved positive growth; b) new energy commercial vehicles: Assumed flat sales of passenger cars, expected net profit margins; In terms of special purpose vehicles, electric dump trucks have begun to increase volume in March, and are expected to achieve sales of several thousand units. The unit price of electric dump trucks is 1.4 million, providing considerable profit increase;Points: If the industry’s growth rate increases in 19-20 years, the unit price of double points settlement is expected to increase (more than 1000-2000 yuan), providing the company with incremental performance; d) Cloud track: It is expected to contribute tens of billions in revenue in 19Performance increase; e) Financial expenses: The budget company will receive 89 trillion compensation liquidation payments in advance, which will improve financial expenses and reduce index expenditures (estimated to be 300-400 million).
In the medium term, the policy-driven termination will provide new incentives for auto companies with double-point assessments. The industry’s bottom line for growth is 35%. The company is expected to use its strong product cycle to consolidate its leading advantages.
Complementary sole industry promotion policy, double-point assessment is imminent. According to our calculations, due to the significant reduction in fuel consumption standards in 19-20 years, the only way for car companies to solve double-point is to produce new energy vehicles, replacing the future of the new energy passenger vehicle industry.Maintaining a growth rate of more than 35% for two years can make the NEV positive integer in 19-20 completely resist the repayment of negative CAFC points, so the policy-driven effect is still there, and we remain optimistic about the industry’s growth rate.
As a leading company in the industry, the company has obvious first-mover advantages. It is 杭州夜网 expected to benefit from the supplementary + double-points policy in 19-20 years. The superimposed new product “explosive car” effect has already caused consumers’ spontaneous demand. In the future, the city’s market share will continue to increase and continue to be consolidated.Leading advantage.
In the long run, the company has core technological advantages in the field of new energy vehicles, and will fully enjoy the dividends brought by the electrification and intelligent trend.
The power battery is the top two in China. Currently, Changan and Dongfeng have been reset for external customers. Foreign customers are expected to land in the first half of the year. At the same time, the company also uses its own core technology, IGBT4, in the field of electrical control.
0 technology provides “Chinese core”, currently has mastered IGBT chip design and manufacturing, module packaging, high-power test applications, breaking foreign monopolies.
4. Earnings forecast and risk warning are accompanied by supplementary bearish digestion. We believe that the company’s turning point has arrived.
In the short term, the company’s sales volume of 400,000 in 1919 is worry-free, and its market share is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, the performance-side company can compensate for most of the impact of the decline by reducing its own costs. At the same time, new energy special vehicles, Yunba Cloud Rail, financialExpenses and sales of double points provide increased performance and gradually increase profits to achieve high growth.
At the same time, the follow-up catalyst for the most external supply of power batteries is expected. The company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 19-21 is 41/51 / 6.1 billion, and it maintains a “strong recommendation-A” rating.
Risk warning: the cost reduction is not up to expectations, and the sales of new energy models are lower than expected.