Wuliangye (000858): High performance growth in line with expectations Reform dividends are worth looking forward to

Wuliangye (000858): High performance growth in line with expectations Reform dividends are worth looking forward to

Event: The company announced the main performance data for the first half of 2019, and achieved operating income of 271 in the first half.

About 500 million, an increase of about 26 a year.

5%, the net profit attributable to the mother is about 9.3 billion, an increase of about 31% year-on-year, and the basic income3.

4 yuan, an increase of about 29% each year.

High performance growth was in line with expectations, and the ton price increased rapidly.

The company’s second-quarter 2019 revenue and attributable net profit growth plans are respectively 27% and 32%. The growth rate of net 成都桑拿网 profit exceeds the growth rate of revenue, and although it is a low season, the growth rate of the two indicators has been increased from the first quarter, except for the first quarter.We think this is mainly due to the smooth introduction of the eighth generation Wuliangye and the continuous upgrade of the product structure.

Through the promotion and collection of the seventh-generation Wuliangye in early 2019, the company has realized inventory clearance and price increase.

At the marketing meeting of Wuliangye brand dealers of Nissan on March 18, the company stated that the ex-factory price of the new version of Puwu had been adjusted to 889 yuan / bottle, which was about 12% higher than the previous seventh-generation price.

In addition, the company launched the strategic ultra-high-end product “501” Wuliangye at the 2019 Spring Candy Conference, and its product system moved up.

The current Puwu formaldehyde price has risen to about 960 yuan. Controlling the amount of supply in the past two months is the core reason, and the price is quite obvious.

We judge that the new round of the industry’s rising period has not yet officially started. The rise in prices of famous wine companies is mainly due to the limited space for the growth of Moutai’s long-term finished product output. At this time, Wuliangye will increase the ton price to ensure that the sales will greatly increase dealer confidence and the companyBrand value and performance certainty also increase.

The work of sorting out products and constructing a digital system has been carried out steadily, and reform dividends are worth looking forward to.

At present, the company is vigorously combing its product system.

In April, the company’s “Brand Constitution” was officially introduced, and the “high imitation” series of wine products will be cleaned up in batches. In June, three series of wine companies listed will be merged into one. It is expected that Wuliangye “1 + 3” and series wine “4 + 4″The product system will be clearer.

At the same time, the company’s reforms revolved around the introduction and expansion of the new Pu’er Wu, adopting the product’s code-scoring system to realize the digital transformation of the channel, and realizing full-process conversion, price increase, disk distribution and digitalization in the transformation of product production, logistics, warehousing and salesEmpowerment will increase channel thrust and terminal control.

Third quarter or heavy volume, long-term performance deterministic replacement.

Third quarter or heavy volume, long-term performance deterministic replacement.

The second quarter of 2019 is the introduction period of the company’s new products. In order to successfully raise prices, the company conducted large-scale and strict control of the goods. The current channel inventory is less than one month. It is expected that the terminal retail price will stabilize above 1,000 yuan / bottle.Heavy volume during the National Day peak season to achieve the 15% sales increase target.

It is expected that the operating income in 2019-21 will increase by 26% / 23% / 18%, the net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 30% / 29% / 22%, and the EPS will be 4 respectively.

5 yuan / 5.

8 yuan / 7.

1 yuan, corresponding to PE is 27 times / 24 times / 20 times, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk reminders: food safety issues; company performance exceeded expectations; company reforms were less effective than expected; RMB exchange rate risk; domestic interest rate rise risks; China’s macroeconomic data fell short of 北京夜生活网 expectations; changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy; internal capital market fluctuation risks.