Makihara Shares (002714):重庆耍耍网 Supporting the release of performance with price compensation
The company’s recent situation Makihara shares recently announced July sales data: the company’s July pig sales income11.
3 billion (six years-6.
Cumulative income for July was 79.
8.7 billion (same as +19.
Looking at the split, July sales of 680,000 heads of pigs (-32 due to a high base last July).
1%, compared with -15.
July sales of 649 pigs.
50,000 heads (ten years +13.
July commodity pig price 16.
01 yuan / ￡ (one year +30.
5%, +4 from the previous quarter.
Commentary on price supplement is still the main core logic: the company’s July sales of 680,000 pigs, slightly lower than market expectations.
The company said sales have increased due to the expansion of production scale and the addition of additional reserve breeding pigs.
Regarding the judgment of the number of slaughter, we maintain a high-level view that, due to the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, large breeding companies have generally improved their breeding pig inventory this year, which makes it difficult to surprise them in the 2H19 slaughter.
However, under the proportion, Makihara has a competitive advantage in the breeding field. The increase of replacement pigs at the current point of time will help the subsequent breeding of pigs to rebound, which will provide a certain amount of support for the next year.
As for the judgment of pig prices, considering the industry-scale production capacity is still continuous, the subsequent upward trend of pig prices is determined.
It is said that the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities has recently risen to more than 19 yuan / kg, which is faster than market expectations.
In summary, we believe that price supplement is still the core logic of the current company. The African swine fever epidemic has a negative sales volume but a good replacement. The company’s performance this year and next will still release room.
Marginal changes in the industry are beneficial to large-scale breeding companies: In combination with our latest survey, we judge that the epidemic situation is bringing two marginal changes to the pig breeding industry: 1) regional changes, the northern epidemic situation is relatively stable, and the southern epidemic situation has strengthened and repeated since the second quarterThe decline in farming density in areas such as Guangdong, Guangdong, and Hubei has driven the overall throughput of the industry to a greater extent; 2) Structural changes. Due to the impact of the epidemic, small and medium-sized retail investors have withdrawn and wait-and-see attitudes have deteriorated. At present, there is a lack of motivation to fill the pen.
Due to the high proportion of small and medium-sized retail investors, their behavior has also triggered the industry’s throughput trend.
However, due to the upgrade of the prevention and control system and the prevention and control measures, in the third quarter, the breeding leaders were more optimistic about resuming production, and gradually strengthened the production in the northern epidemic-stable areas.
On the whole, we believe 无锡夜网that the breeding leader is trying to reflect a different trend from the industry as a whole, and it is worth benefiting from the higher pig price expectations brought by the large number of retail exits, and it is expected that its production volume will be stabilized in advance due to the increase in production recovery.
Estimates The proposed estimates correspond to 50/13 times the estimates for 2019/2020.
We maintain our 2019/2020 profit forecast31.
47 trillion remained unchanged at 86.
The target price of 00 yuan is unchanged, and the target price corresponds to 57/15 times the 2019/2020 estimate, + 14% space.
Maintain Outperform rating.
Risk Pig prices and slaughter volume are lower than expected; epidemic risk; raw material prices have risen more than expected.